Global population projections for 2100
Large urban centers and peripheral regions have seen a massive uptick in population size, whereas rural populations have seen slower growth and decline in population.
The world is undergoing a tremendous demographic shift, with some countries experiencing a massive cut down in population size mainly due to low fertility rates and aging population, while some other nations are undergoing a population boom. Countries like China, Japan and South Korea are facing a serious low fertility crisis owing to numerous factors like housing crisis, rampant unemployment, soaring healthcare and childcare costs, expensive educational costs that are dissuading the youth from starting families and having kids. While, populations in countries like India, Nigeria and Congo are thriving and are expected to peak by the turn of the century.
Despite the decline in population in many of the advanced and developed countries, the world population still remains intact and continues to grow, albeit more gradually than in the past. In 2024, the global population increased from 8.15 billion at the start to 8.19 billion today, adding 700,000 persons in total. Further, the global population is expected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050 and surpass 10 billion by 2100. Although the global population has continued to flourish, not all regions have experienced the same growth in populations.
A report by DHSL suggests urban centers with high density clusters across the globe have witnessed the largest uptick of population size, followed by urban clusters with low density clusters. The report also analyzed the population shifts in Semi-dense urban clusters with even lower density clusters, suburban and peri-urban regions across the globe, regions bordering large urban centers, rural clusters, that hold semi-dense and small density clusters, low density rural regions with even smaller density clusters and very low density rural areas with even smaller density clusters.
The report reveals population shifts in different types of regions across the globe:
Urban Centers
Populations in urban centers with the highest population density saw the biggest growth of all the other regions. From 2020 to 2025, population in urban centers across the globe increased from 3,495,154,483 to 3,709,023,562, and is projected to grow to 3,936,814,620 by 2030. The influx of immigrants from rural areas, who move to metropolises and big cities in search for better job opportunities and a better life could be the number one reason for the massive increase in population size in urban centers.
Urban Clusters
Urban clusters are slightly less densely populated than urban centers, on average urban centers hold two-three times the population of urban centers. In the five years between 2020-2025, population in urban clusters around the world increased from 1,046,937,208 to 1,055,498,154, marking a 9 million increase in the five years, after witnessing a dramatic decline from 2015 to 2020. The population in urban clusters is projected to surge to 1,065,784,786 by 2030, mainly for the same reasons as for urban centers.
Semi-dense Urban Clusters
Semi-dense urban clusters have a population density of 900 to 5000 people per km of area, indicating smaller cluster than urban clusters. The population size in semi-dense clusters across the globe have increased by 20 million on average from 2015 to 2025. 263,453,199 people inhabited semi-dense urban clusters across the world in 2015, that number went up to 284,435,528 in 2020, surpassed 300,000,000 in 2025 and is expected to rise to 317,766,353 in the next five years. Semi-dense urban centers around the world are hotspots for rural immigrants due to lower costs of living and housing compared to those in urban centers and clusters. Rural immigrants mostly base themselves in these parts and work their way up to urban centers and clusters.
Suburban or Peri-Urban Settlements
Suburban regions have a lower population density than the previous typological settlements with anywhere around 300 to 5000 people per km of area. Suburban areas make the outskirts of large cities, often on looking big cities. Population in suburban regions across the world grew from 1,430,017,614 in 2020 to 1,526,312,866 in 2025, an uptick of nearly 10 million in the five years. The population size of peri-urban regions is projected to reach 1,607,269,138 by 2030. The analysis indicates suburban regions to have a larger population size than semi-dense urban clusters, indicating that people are increasingly choosing suburban areas to migrate from rural areas for the low cost of living and housing.
Rural Clusters
Rural clusters have the same population density as suburban settlements but are often less developed. The study indicated the population in rural clusters rose by slightly less than 10 million from 2020 to 2025, and is projected to increase by merely 5 million by 2030. The trend in the decline in the population size is indicative of the large outflow of rural residents into urban centers. Rural residents are increasingly migrating to big cities and neighboring regions due to the lack of unemployment opportunities, harsh or indecent living conditions and low social mobility in rural areas.
Low Density Rural Clusters
Low density rural clusters have a population density of 50 to 500 people per km of area. As per the study, the population in these regions across the world increased by slightly more than 7 million between 2020-2025 and is expected to rapidly boom by nearly 20 million in the next half a decade. One reason for it could be the rapid population increase in underdeveloped or developing regions like India, Nigeria, Congo and many other countries in the sub-Sahara that could contribute to the massive uptick of population in low-density rural clusters.
Very Low Density Rural Cluster
Very low density rural clusters have a population density of 0 to 50 people per km of area, indicative of sparse housing clusters. The population in these regions has dropped since 2015 and is expected to fall even further by 2030. 200,196,186 people lived in very low density rural clusters in 2015, that number dropped by nearly seven million to 193,210,423 in 2020, and dropped even further by four million to 189,866,471 between 2020 to 2025. The population size in these regions is expected to drop below 190 million to 187,170,137 for the first time ever. The decline in population size is a sign that more rural residents are looking to migrate to big cities or more dense settlement regions in order to take advantage of the advancements in the regions and better lifestyles and living conditions.
Even with the massive disparities between nations in terms of the population ebbs and flows, the global population remains steady and continues to grow. However, the growth in population is not proportionate in all settlement types as the population in urban centers and peripheral regions have seen a massive hike in recent years, while populations in rural areas have witnessed a significant decline in population size due to large outflows of rural residents to major cities.